Record

Every fire in Bulgaria that EFFIS (the European Forest Fire Information System) mapped from satellite images, checked against what Ember.bg saw and said about it. Mistakes included.

Fires over 30 ha, 2016–2026.

caught: 94%; 621 of 658 fires mapped by EFFIS have detections from NASA's satellites.
alerted: 98%; of those caught were rated wildfire or unclear: the fires an alert is sent for.
from the first pass: 97%; of those were rated so already at the satellite's first pass.
burned area: 1×; the burned area from Sentinel-2 images against EFFIS's (median of 530 fires since 2017).

By season

Season	Fires over 30 ha	Caught	Alerted	From the first pass	Burned area ÷ EFFIS	Confirmed
2026	72	97%	91%	98%	0.8×	40% 75/187
2025	92	93%	100%	100%	0.9×	40% 136/343
2024	131	94%	100%	98%	1×	35% 162/461
2023	73	92%	100%	99%	1.1×	24% 89/372
2022	81	90%	100%	99%	0.9×	20% 81/407
2021	35	94%	100%	97%	1.2×	21% 51/239
2020	37	95%	91%	100%	1×	8% 33/396
2019	78	99%	95%	85%	1.1×	10% 64/649
2018	13	100%	100%	92%	2.2×	3% 8/252
2017	17	100%	100%	100%	1.1×	4% 10/283
2016	29	93%	96%	100%	—	6% 21/340

Confirmed: how many of the fires Ember.bg calls wildfires EFFIS mapped. A floor, not a precision: EFFIS rarely maps fires under 30 ha, and until 2019 it mapped far fewer fires in Bulgaria.

Where we got it wrong

Of 658 fires over 30 ha that EFFIS mapped since 2016, 37 were not caught and 14 were caught but not alerted. All the others were caught and alerted. Here is every miss, newest first.

Not caught 37

No satellite detection inside the burned area (with 300 m to spare). The fire may have burned between two passes, under cloud, or too faintly. Sometimes the detections sit just outside EFFIS's outline.

Valchedram
28 Sep 2026 · 98 ha
The nearest detection was 2.1 km from the burned area.
Bratsigovo
17 Jul 2026 · 51 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Topolovgrad
28 Jul 2025 · 91 ha
The nearest detection was 0.3 km from the burned area.
Haskovo
16 Aug 2025 · 81 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Bobov dol
21 Aug 2025 · 69 ha
The nearest detection was 0.3 km from the burned area.
Pomorie
3 Aug 2025 · 61 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Koprivshtitsa
12 Feb 2025 · 58 ha
The nearest detection was 0.3 km from the burned area.
Berovo
9 Mar 2025 · 32 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Pernik
6 Sep 2024 · 281 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Strelcha
18 Jul 2024 · 80 ha
The nearest detection was 3.9 km from the burned area.
Etropole
9 Apr 2024 · 59 ha
The nearest detection was 0.8 km from the burned area.
Troyan
27 Feb 2024 · 47 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Teteven
28 Feb 2024 · 36 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Petrich
11 Jul 2024 · 33 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Varna
10 Jul 2024 · 31 ha
The nearest detection was 3.4 km from the burned area.
Sevlievo
28 Feb 2024 · 30 ha
The nearest detection was 1.5 km from the burned area.
Teteven
20 Mar 2023 · 90 ha
The nearest detection was 3.8 km from the burned area.
Teteven
2 Mar 2023 · 80 ha
The nearest detection was 3.4 km from the burned area.
Madzharovo
26 Jul 2023 · 71 ha
The nearest detection was 1.7 km from the burned area.
Teteven
2 Mar 2023 · 70 ha
The nearest detection was 3 km from the burned area.
Lukovit
6 Jan 2023 · 46 ha
The nearest detection was 0.5 km from the burned area.
Sredets
21 Aug 2023 · 30 ha
The nearest detection was 0.3 km from the burned area.
Svilengrad
14 Aug 2022 · 201 ha
The nearest detection was 6.3 km from the burned area.
Varshets
6 Feb 2022 · 81 ha
The nearest detection was 3.1 km from the burned area.
Troyan
28 Mar 2022 · 60 ha
The nearest detection was 0.9 km from the burned area.
Kaynardzha
15 Jul 2022 · 49 ha
The nearest detection was 1.1 km from the burned area.
Etropole
28 Mar 2022 · 43 ha
The nearest detection was 5.6 km from the burned area.
Dimovo
28 Mar 2022 · 40 ha
The nearest detection was 0.5 km from the burned area.
Mezdra
30 Mar 2022 · 38 ha
The nearest detection was 4.7 km from the burned area.
Sevlievo
28 Mar 2022 · 33 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Lukovit
25 Feb 2021 · 54 ha
The nearest detection was 0.8 km from the burned area.
Bobov dol
1 Aug 2021 · 31 ha
The nearest detection was 0.8 km from the burned area.
Strumyani
23 Jan 2020 · 53 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Teteven
24 Jan 2020 · 46 ha
The nearest detection was 1.3 km from the burned area.
Gulyantsi
5 Nov 2019 · 77 ha
The nearest detection was 1.9 km from the burned area.
Topolovgrad
4 Aug 2016 · 580 ha
No detection within 10 km at the time.
Harmanli
19 Aug 2016 · 89 ha
The nearest detection was 2.9 km from the burned area.

Caught, not alerted 14

Ember.bg saw the fire, but in its first 24 hours took it for a field burn or an industrial source, so no alert would have gone out. EFFIS maps big stubble and pasture burns too.

Lukovit
1 Oct 2026 · 124 ha
taken for a field burn
4 detections · 6% chance of a significant fire.
Krushovitsa
24 Sep 2026 · 69 ha
taken for a field burn
3 detections · 4% chance of a significant fire.
Dryanovo
22 Aug 2026 · 62 ha
taken for a field burn
2 detections · 4% chance of a significant fire.
Aleko Konstantinovo
20 Jun 2026 · 50 ha
taken for industry
At a spot that is hot in many different months.
Varbitsa
23 Aug 2026 · 44 ha
taken for a field burn
1 detection · 6% chance of a significant fire.
Kozare
11 Oct 2026 · 42 ha
taken for a field burn
6 detections · 5% chance of a significant fire.
Venets
30 Jan 2020 · 138 ha
taken for a field burn
6 detections · 7% chance of a significant fire.
Krasnovski Mineralni Bani
1 Sep 2020 · 64 ha
taken for a field burn
5 detections · 9% chance of a significant fire.
Dermantsi
20 Sep 2020 · 38 ha
taken for a field burn
8 detections · 5% chance of a significant fire.
Staroseltsi
21 Sep 2019 · 287 ha
taken for a field burn
18 detections · 9% chance of a significant fire.
Babovo
19 Mar 2019 · 198 ha
taken for a field burn
11 detections · 6% chance of a significant fire.
Dragana
12 Oct 2019 · 86 ha
taken for a field burn
10 detections · 10% chance of a significant fire.
Deventsi
18 Sep 2019 · 42 ha
taken for a field burn
2 detections · 7% chance of a significant fire.
Bezhanovo
24 Sep 2016 · 71 ha
taken for a field burn
6 detections · 9% chance of a significant fire.

How it is checked

A fire is caught if at least one of its detections lies in the EFFIS burned area (with 300 m to spare), from 5 days before to 10 days after the fire.
“Alerted” means the fire was rated wildfire or unclear within its first 24 hours, or burned long enough: exactly when a live alert goes out.
Times are satellite times: the earliest Ember.bg could have known. Live, a few more hours pass before the data arrives.
How much earlier than the news, EFFIS can't show: its own start of a fire comes from the same satellites. A comparison with the first news reports is coming.
Burned area is measured from Sentinel-2 images from before and after the fire. While a fire burns, the area around its detections is shown instead: it is 1.7× the burned area by EFFIS.
The model that rates fires was trained on the fires of 2023–2025. In the seasons it never saw, 95% are caught and 96% of those alerted: almost the same as overall.

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